Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation : A Dynamic Systems Approach.
Providing new knowledge on risk analysis and simulation for megaprojects, this book is essential reading for both academics and practitioners. Its focus is on technical descriptions of a newly developed dynamic systems approach to megaproject risk analysis and simulation.
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| Author / Creator: | |
|---|---|
| Other Authors / Creators: | Chen, Zhen. Ogunlana, Stephen O. |
| Format: | eBook Electronic |
| Language: | English |
| Imprint: | Bingley : Emerald Publishing Limited, 2017. |
| Subjects: | |
| Local Note: | Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2022. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries. |
| Online Access: | Click to View |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Boateng, Prince. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation : |b A Dynamic Systems Approach. |
| 264 | 1 | |a Bingley : |b Emerald Publishing Limited, |c 2017. | |
| 264 | 4 | |c ©2017. | |
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (371 pages) | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a Front Cover -- Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation: A Dynamic Systems Approach -- Copyright Page -- Dedication -- Contents -- Abbreviations -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- List of Exhibits -- List of Equations -- Acknowledgements -- About the Authors -- Preface -- Foreword -- Chapter 1 Introduction -- 1.1. Introduction -- 1.2. The Problem with Megaprojects -- 1.2.1. Megaproject Risks -- 1.2.2. Megaproject Risk Assessment -- 1.2.3. A New Risk Assessment Framework -- 1.3. Purpose and Scope -- 1.4. Structure of the Book -- 1.5. Originality and Value -- 1.6. Summary -- Chapter 2 The Edinburgh Tram Network (ETN) Project -- 2.1. Introduction -- 2.2. Background to the Project -- 2.2.1. The 1871-1956 Era -- 2.2.2. The New Edinburgh Tram Network -- 2.2.3. Tram Network Construction and Civil Engineering Works -- 2.2.4. Contractual Disputes -- 2.3. STEEP Risks -- 2.3.1. Social Issues -- 2.3.2. Technical Issues -- 2.3.3. Environmental Issues -- 2.3.4. Political Issues -- 2.4. Summary -- Chapter 3 Megaproject Risks Assessment Framework -- 3.1. Introduction -- 3.2. Risk Analysis Framework -- 3.2.1. The ANP Modelling Route -- 3.2.1.1. ANP model structure development -- 3.2.1.2. Pairwise comparison -- 3.2.1.3. Consistency test -- 3.2.2. The SD Modelling Route -- 3.3. Risk Clusters -- 3.3.1. The Social Risks Cluster -- 3.3.2. Technical Risk Cluster -- 3.3.3. Economic Risks -- 3.3.3.1. Completion risks -- 3.3.3.2. Market risk -- 3.3.4. Environmental Risk Cluster -- 3.3.5. Political Risk Cluster -- 3.4. Summary -- Chapter 4 Megaproject Risk Quantification -- 4.1. Introduction -- 4.2. Analysis of Risk Interdependency -- 4.2.1. Qualitative Approaches -- 4.2.2. The Quantitative Approach -- 4.2.3. Descriptive Quantitative Results and Analysis -- 4.2.4. Standardized Quantitative Results and Analysis -- 4.2.5. Adjustments of Participants' Opinions. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 4.3. ANP Model -- 4.4. Pairwise Comparison -- 4.5. Risk Interdependency Matrix -- 4.5.1. Project Objectives Cluster -- 4.5.2. Potential Risks Cluster -- 4.5.3. Potential Risks Sub-Clusters -- 4.6. Supermatrix Calculation -- 4.7. Risk Rating -- 4.8. Consistency Test -- 4.9. Risk Priority Index (RPI) -- 4.10. Summary -- Chapter 5 Risk Simulation -- 5.1. Introduction -- 5.2. Project Risk Systems Model -- 5.2.1. Model Causality -- 5.2.2. Initial Model Development -- 5.2.3. System Boundaries -- 5.3. STEEP Risks System -- 5.3.1. Social Risks System -- 5.3.1.1. The vicious cycle of social risks generation -- 5.3.1.2. The vicious cycle of grievance prevention -- 5.3.1.3. Causalities for social risk stock variables -- 5.3.2. Technical Risks System -- 5.3.2.1. Causalities for technical risk stock variables -- 5.3.3. Economic Risks System -- 5.3.3.1. Causalities for the economic risks stock variables -- 5.3.4. Environmental Risks System -- 5.3.4.1. Causalities for environmental risks stock variables -- 5.3.5. Political Risks System -- 5.3.5.1. Causalities for political risks stock variables -- 5.4. System Verification -- 5.5. System Modelling, Testing and Simulation -- 5.5.1. Integrated Stock and Flow STEEP Models -- 5.5.2. Model Equation Formulation -- 5.5.3. Model Evaluation Tests -- 5.5.4. Dynamic Simulation Results and Discussion -- 5.5.4.1. Dynamic social risks system model -- 5.5.4.2. Dynamic technical risks system model -- 5.5.4.3. Dynamic economic risks system model -- 5.5.4.4. Dynamic environmental risks system model -- 5.5.4.5. Dynamic political risks system model -- 5.6. System Validation -- 5.6.1. Structure Verification -- 5.6.2. Parameter Verification -- 5.6.3. Boundary Adequacy -- 5.6.4. Dimensional Consistency -- 5.7. Summary -- Chapter 6 Conclusions -- 6.1. Introduction -- 6.2. Value for Practice -- 6.3. Contribution and Impacts. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 6.4. Practical Guide -- 6.5. Limitations and Further Research -- 6.5.1. Limitations -- 6.5.2. Further Research -- References -- Appendices -- Appendix A: Model Validation -- A.1. Introduction -- A.2. Philosophical Aspects of Model Validity -- A.3. Model Validation Process -- A.4. Methods for Testing and Validating the Integrated System Models -- A.5. Importance of the Integrated System Model Objective -- A.6. Validating the Model Structure -- A.7. Tests of Suitability -- A.7.1. Structure Verification -- A.7.2. Parameter Verification -- A.7.3. Boundary Adequacy -- A.7.4. Dimensional Consistency -- A.7.5. Extreme Conditions -- A.8. Validating the Model Behaviour -- A.8.1. Behaviour Reproduction Test -- A.8.2. Sensitivity Analysis -- A.8.3. Numerical Sensitivity Analysis -- A.8.4. Behaviour Mode Sensitivity Analysis -- A.9. Other Tests -- A.9.1. Policy Analysis, Design and Improvement -- A.9.2. Feedback Approach -- A.9.3. Disaggregation Approach -- A.9.4. Simulation Approach -- A.9.5. Manageable Model Size -- A.10. Policy Implementation -- A.11. Summary -- Appendix B: Structured Interview Questionnaire and Participants -- Appendix C: Respondent's Mean Scores of Importance -- Index. | |
| 520 | |a Providing new knowledge on risk analysis and simulation for megaprojects, this book is essential reading for both academics and practitioners. Its focus is on technical descriptions of a newly developed dynamic systems approach to megaproject risk analysis and simulation. | ||
| 588 | |a Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources. | ||
| 590 | |a Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2022. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries. | ||
| 655 | 4 | |a Electronic books. | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Chen, Zhen. | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ogunlana, Stephen O. | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Boateng, Prince |t Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation |d Bingley : Emerald Publishing Limited,c2017 |z 9781786358318 |
| 797 | 2 | |a ProQuest (Firm) | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/well/detail.action?docID=4717109 |z Click to View |